M12 Moonee Valley – 3rd August 2019

Selections for: Australian Racing

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M12 Moonee Valley – 3rd August 2019

M12: The Valley - 3rd Aug, 2019

Start time:2:00 pm
Weather:Overcast
Track:Soft

Overview

Racing returns to Moonee Valley which is resurfaced and ready to host a nine-race card

Day's "Best"

R1 (2) Alburq

Best "Each Way"

R2 (2) Mystical Pursuit

Best "Roughie"

R6 (7) San Remo

Race 1 - SHEAMUS MILLS BLOODSTOCK HANDICAP
Time: 2:00 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top PickThe 'Day's Best'
2 Alburq   F: 3236X
  B(4) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Mark Zahra )
Looks one of the better bets of the day. Has form behind some smart types, including Yes Yes Yes. That's strong form for this.
Main Danger
3 Memphis Rock   F: 32041
  B(3) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Luke Nolen )
Scored an overdue win last time out and could kick on with it now. Drawn well and it could sit off the speed and finish strongly.
Next Best
1 Asateer   F: 2X11
  B(2) W(58)
 ( J-  Zac Spain )
Placed
Dividend : $2.80
Looked good winning its last two, but synthetic form doesn't hold up well, especially in this grade. Too short in the betting but it's a win chance.
Include in Multis
4 Skiddaw   F: 6X19
  B(1) W(56)
 ( J-  Damien Oliver )
Showed its ability when scoring second up. Inside draw should help early in the day and it has upset chances.
Longer Odds
6 Condo's Express   F: 222
  B(6) W(55)
 ( J-  Linda Meech )
Won
Dividends : $8.00 $3.50
Consistent type which could add some value again.

Remarks

Some handy types in this
race-image
Alburq looks a nice type in the making

Results

Race Dividends
Win 6 $ 8.00
Place1 6 $ 3.50
Place2 1 $ 2.80
Quinella 1:6 $ 21.60
Trifecta 6:1:3 $ 127.00
First4 6:1:3:4 $ 821.90
Trifecta - Selected!
First 4 - Selected!

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 2, 3, 4, 6
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 2 - HYGAIN TRACKTORQUE HANDICAP
Time: 2:35 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top PickThe 'Best Each Way'
2 Mystical Pursuit   F: 1111X
  B(1) W(58)
 ( J-  Chris Graham )
Unbeaten after four starts and really hit the line nicely last start. Can't be overlooking the Tasmanian form, especially from Trinder's stable.
Main Danger
6 Taraayef   F: 21
  B(5) W(55)
 ( J-  Luke Nolen )
Won
Dividends : $3.10 $1.40
Beat a nice type last start having finished second behind Absolute Flirt on debut. Has strengthened up nicely and should be included.
Next Best
1 Absolute Flirt   F: 2X112
  B(2) W(59)
 ( J-  Damien Oliver )
Placed
Dividend : $2.10
Last-start second was no blight on its form. Has plenty of ability and gets a good run from the draw. Tough to beat.
Include in Multis
3 Jedastar   F: 120X
  B(4) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Zac Spain )
A touch short in the betting. Good debut win but showed nothing last start at Group 1 level. Easier here.
Longer Odds
5 Seatonic   F: 92211
  B(8) W(55.5)
 ( J-  Linda Meech )
Last couple have been good and it has upset claims.

Remarks

Should be a highly-competitive race
race-image
Mystical Pursuit could remain unbeaten

Results

Race Dividends
Win 6 $ 3.10
Place1 6 $ 1.40
Place2 8 $ 2.40
Place3 1 $ 2.10
Quinella 6:8 $ 13.40
Trifecta 6:8:1 $ 108.30
First4 6:8:1:5 $ 476.20

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 2, 3, 5, 6
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 3 - THE VALLEY HANDICAP
Time: 3:10 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
11 Kiss And Cry   F: 11352
  B(1) W(54)
 ( J-  Lachlan King )
Has plenty of upside after winning twice already this campaign. Mixing its efforts since but dropping in weight is ideal. Nice chance.
Main Danger
4 Moscow Red   F: 67321
  B(10) W(55)
 ( J-  Beau Mertens )
 ( T-  Henry Dwyer )
Has been scratched twice since winning but has been set for a harder race. That's a good sign and it could add some nice value at odds.
Next Best
6 Paint The Town Two   F: 35421
  B(9) W(54.5)
 ( J-  Ted Nugent )
Placed
Dividend : $2.00
Handy midweek winner last time out. Drawn awkwardly here so will need a good ride, but it has upside. In-form Nugent rides.
Include in Multis
9 Broken Treaty   F: 54131
  B(8) W(54)
 ( J-  Michael Dee )
 ( T-  Luke Oliver )
Seventh run of its first preparation. That includes two wins and it deserves another chance at the light weight.
Longer Odds
3 Shady Hustle   F: 141X0
  B(5) W(56)
 ( J-  Ben Allen )
Might have needed the fresh up run. Showed form last campaign.

Remarks

Punters are getting good odds throughout the field
race-image
Kiss And Cry is a chance

Results

Race Dividends
Win 7 $ 11.50
Place1 7 $ 3.20
Place2 6 $ 2.00
Place3 10 $ 7.10
Quinella 6:7 $ 31.60
Trifecta 7:6:10 $ 2486.60
First4 7:6:10:9 $ 9330.60

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
3, 4, 6, 9, 11
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 4 - THE VALLEY HANDICAP
Time: 3:45 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
3 Alfarris   F: X4614
  B(9) W(55.5)
 ( J-  Luke Nolen )
Imported runner which has been solid since returning this campaign. Looks set to run a big race and the imports have the wood over the locals.
Main Danger
6 Travimyfriend   F: 02312
  B(3) W(54)
 ( J-  Michael Dee )
Ran second in a good battle last time out. Has plenty of ability, as shown when winning two back. Looks tough to beat in this.
Next Best
1 Pacodali   F: 45125
  B(7) W(61.5)
 ( J-  Ted Nugent )
Placed
Dividend : $1.90
Continues to battle on nicely and it gets some weight off its back. Has won on this track and that always helps around The Valley.
Include in Multis
7 Kentucky Breeze   F: X4981
  B(1) W(54)
 ( J-  Jamie Kah )
Placed
Dividend : $2.00
Returned to form when winning last time out. Likely to kick on with it now and it gets the inside draw with a light weight.
Longer Odds
5 Tan Tat Trusting   F: 41634
  B(4) W(54)
 ( J-  James Winks )
 ( T-  Tony McEvoy )
Trainer has a good opinion of it and it has upset claims.

Remarks

Each-way all day type of race
race-image
Alfarris is an import with ability

Results

Race Dividends
Win 8 $ 6.70
Place1 8 $ 2.40
Place2 1 $ 1.90
Place3 7 $ 2.00
Quinella 1:8 $ 18.00
Trifecta 8:1:7 $ 160.30
First4 8:1:7:10 $ 3054.50

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 3, 5, 6, 7
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 5 - JOCKEY CELEBRATION DAY HANDICAP
Time: 4:25 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
10 Trigger Point   F: 15251
  B(3) W(60)
 ( J-  Ted Nugent )
Comes into this with a last-start win. That was its second this campaign and it should get every chance to win again.
Main Danger
7 Alsvin   F: 51319
  B(5) W(60)
 ( J-  Michael Poy )
 ( T-  Shea Eden )
Disappointing last start but it is an inconsistent type. Good win two back and a return to that form takes it close.
Next Best
8 Legale   F: 64262
  B(12) W(60)
 ( J-  Lewis German )
Drawn poorly in barrier 16 but with luck, it could figure in the finish. Plenty of money coming its way so respect.
Include in Multis
18 Vungers   F: 9X232
  B(5) W(58.5)
 ( J-  Brad Rawiller )
Three consecutive placings coming into this. Gets a nice draw and it could add some value at each-way odds.
Longer Odds
5 I Boogi   F: X0680
  B(1) W(60.5)
 ( J-  Damian Lane )
Won
Dividends : $10.60 $2.80
Chance to regain its form. Upset hope.

Remarks

Wide open field with value throughout
race-image
Trigger Point could fire

Results

Race Dividends
Win 5 $ 10.60
Place1 5 $ 2.80
Place2 14 $ 3.90
Place3 9 $ 6.50
Quinella 5:14 $ 78.10
Trifecta 5:14:9 $ 1767.70
First4 5:14:9:11 $ 45327.00

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
5, 7, 8, 10, 18
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 6 - CHANDLER MACLEOD HANDICAP
Time: 5:05 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
1 The Statesman   F: 5X352
  B(10) W(62)
 ( J-  Ted Nugent )
Placed
Dividend : $1.50
Battled on nicely to run second last start. Cleared out the rest of the field and it should be right around the mark. First time at The Valley is the only negative.
Main Danger
6 More Than Ever   F: 42211
  B(2) W(58)
 ( J-  Jamie Kah )
 ( T-  Tony McEvoy )
Won
Dividends : $4.00 $1.70
Possibly a false favourite but it has good form with consecutive wins. Drawn to get a nice trip in transit so include in win bets.
Next Best
4 Mirimar   F: 24131
  B(11) W(60)
 ( J-  Michael Poy )
Tough to rule out any in-form runner from this stable at the moment. They keep winning and we wouldn't be overlooking its chances.
Include in Multis
2 Social Element   F: X1242
  B(12) W(61.5)
 ( J-  Stephen Baster )
Right around the mark in all four runs this time in, which includes a fresh up win. Right in this with some luck. Could head forward.
Longer OddsThe 'Best Roughie'
7 San Remo   F: 84343
  B(5) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Jarrod Fry )
 ( T-  Dane Smith )
Better for the run last start and it has upside.

Remarks

Nice race to open up the quaddie
race-image
The Statesman could go one better

Results

Race Dividends
Win 6 $ 4.00
Place1 6 $ 1.70
Place2 3 $ 4.60
Place3 1 $ 1.50
Quinella 3:6 $ 39.00
Trifecta 6:3:1 $ 186.00
First4 6:3:1:11 $ 5197.60

Betting Suggestions

Quaddies
R6 (1) The Statesman(4) Mirimar (6) More Than Ever (7) San Remo
R7 (1) Naval Warfare(4) Masculino (7) Bedford (10) Twilight Run
R8 (9) Tavisan(11) Usain Bowler (13) Age Of Chivalry
R9 (5) Moor Wanted(6) Non Paear (7) Condor Heroes
Quaddies % to a $20 stake:

Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 2, 4, 6, 7
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 7 - DYNAMIC PRINT GROUP HANDICAP
Time: 5:45 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
10 Twilight Run   F: 13X21
  B(9) W(54)
 ( J-  Beau Mertens )
Scored at nice odds last start and is much shorter here. Heading in the right direction and it looks ideally-placed at the weights.
Main Danger
4 Masculino   F: 73122
  B(1) W(58.5)
 ( J-  Mark Zahra )
Placed
Dividend : $1.40
Never gives up and always battles on nicely. Good win three back and has placed twice since then. Gets a good chance to win again.
Next Best
7 Bedford   F: X4011
  B(2) W(55.5)
 ( J-  Jamie Mott )
Placed
Dividend : $2.20
Searching for three consecutive wins. Has turned its form around nicely and it could pay to follow it for another run.
Include in Multis
1 Naval Warfare   F: 223X6
  B(8) W(60)
 ( J-  Michael Walker )
Slightly over the odds and it has room for improvement after a solid fresh up run. Has a good chance to win at double-figure odds.
Longer Odds
6 Last Week   F: 22363
  B(6) W(56)
 ( J-  Ben Melham )
Could run well at nice odds.

Remarks

Looks a good form race
race-image
Stick with Twilight Run

Results

Race Dividends
Win 8 $ 15.40
Place1 8 $ 3.60
Place2 4 $ 1.40
Place3 7 $ 2.20
Quinella 4:8 $ 27.80
Trifecta 8:4:7 $ 300.20
First4 8:4:7:9 $ 4067.00

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 4, 6, 7, 10
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 8 - FOUR'N TWENTY HANDICAP
Time: 6:25 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
11 Usain Bowler   F: 500X5
  B(6) W(57)
 ( J-  Mark Zahra )
 ( T-  John Sadler )
Won
Dividends : $2.90 $1.40
Has Group 1 experience and that counts for plenty. Might have needed the fresh up run and it will be better for it. Nice odds on offer.
Main Danger
13 Age Of Chivalry   F: 1122X
  B(3) W(56)
 ( J-  Damian Lane )
Above average type which didn't run a bad race last campaign. Has group class ability and that should stack up nicely here.
Next Best
9 Tavisan   F: 0X6X1
  B(11) W(58)
 ( J-  Ben Melham )
Placed
Dividend : $1.90
Likely to head forward and try kick on the turn. Drawn wide but has good barrier speed and a solid afterburner.
Include in Multis
7 Rox The Castle   F: 1811X
  B(4) W(58.5)
 ( J-  Jack Martin )
Knows how to win and it's unbeaten in two starts on this track. This isn't an easy race but it needs to be included.
Longer Odds
1 Highland Beat   F: 28114
  B(12) W(60.5)
 ( J-  Lachlan King )
In good form and has upset potential.

Remarks

Another wide-open field
race-image
Usain Bowler has upside

Results

Race Dividends
Win 11 $ 2.90
Place1 11 $ 1.40
Place2 14 $ 4.10
Place3 9 $ 1.90
Quinella 11:14 $ 29.90
Trifecta 11:14:9 $ 248.90
First4 11:14:9:8 $ 2420.60

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 7, 9, 11, 13
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 9 - WOODSIDE PARK STALLION PARADE 17TH AUG HANDICAP
Time: 7:00 | Distance: m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
7 Condor Heroes   F: 6X88X
  B(11) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Mark Zahra )
Trialed like a superstar. That was an impressive outing and although harder on race day, it was hard not to be impressed.
Main Danger
6 Non Paear   F: 22281
  B(1) W(59)
 ( J-  Ted Nugent )
In good form with three wins this campaign. Isn't lacking fitness and it gets a good run from the inside barrier. Tough to beat.
Next Best
5 Moor Wanted   F: 12024
  B(3) W(59)
 ( J-  Jack Martin )
 ( T-  Peter Chow )
Puts in the odd bad run but it has a chance from a nice barrier. Goes well when it's right so consider here at a nice price.
Include in Multis
4 Exceltara   F: 1660X
  B(14) W(59)
 ( J-  Damian Lane )
Won fresh up last campaign and it only needs some luck from out wide. Right in this with that luck.
Longer Odds
8 Forbid Me Not   F: 0X117
  B(5) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Brad Rawiller )
 ( T-  Symon Wilde )
Placed
Dividend : $6.20
Good enough to win back-to-back races earlier this prep. Chance.

Remarks

Looks a nice race to close the card
race-image
Condor Heroes should go close

Results

Race Dividends
Win 9 $ 8.50
Place1 9 $ 2.80
Place2 8 $ 6.20
Place3 12 $ 8.20
Quinella 8:9 $ 108.80
Trifecta 9:8:12 $ 7476.10
First4 9:8:12:2 $ 95812.40

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
4, 5, 6, 7, 8
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%