M12 Mornington – 21st March 2020

Selections for: Australian Racing

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M12 Mornington – 21st March 2020

M12: Mornington - 21st Mar, 2020

Start time:2:15 pm
Weather:Overcast
Track:Good

Overview

Mornington Cup day with good betting fields throughout the card

Day's "Best"

R3 (11) Too Good Too Hard

Best "Each Way"

R7 (7) Inverloch

Best "Roughie"

R4 (9) Seatonic
  • Race 1 - QUAYCLEAN SIRES
    Time: 2:15 | Distance: 1500m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    1 Amish Boy   F: 3541
      B(6) W(58)
     ( J-  Jye McNeil )
    Scored a breakthrough win last start and it could kick on with it. Drifting a touch but punters are getting better value now.
    Main Danger
    2 Glenfiddich   F: 92502
      B(2) W(58)
     ( J-  Noel Callow )
    Won
    Dividends : $2.50 $1.70
    Yet to win from six attempts but there is market confidence, so it could pay to follow that. Inside draw and that helps.
    Next Best
    4 Albukhturi   F: 38
      B(4) W(58)
     ( J-  Regan Bayliss )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.90
    Beaten by a better field last start. It has upside and it's another well-backed runner. Chance.
    Include in Multis
    3 Sea Witness   F: 484
      B(5) W(58)
     ( J-  Dean Holland )
    Two of its three runs haven't been too bad. Might need to lift in order to win, but there is only one race winner in this field.
    Longer Odds
    6 Torbreck   F: 5
      B(1) W(58)
     ( J-  Luke Nolen )
    Gets the inside draw and it's open to improvement.

    Remarks

    A small but good field to kick off the card
    race-image
    Amish Boy could win again

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 2 $ 2.50
    Place1 2 $ 1.70
    Place2 4 $ 1.90
    Quinella 2:4 $ 6.20
    Trifecta 2:4:1 $ 16.70
    First4 2:4:1:6 $ 43.90
    Trifecta - Selected!
    First 4 - Selected!

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 2, 3, 4, 6
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 2 - MACPHERSON KELLEY HANDICAP
    Time: 2:50 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    7 Des Moines   F: 125X3
      B(9) W(58.5)
     ( J-  Jye McNeil )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.40
    Backed to win last start and it wasn't all that far away. Faces an easier field here and it won second-up last campaign.
    Main Danger
    5 Done By Me   F: 0185X
      B(8) W(59.5)
    Yet to win fresh up but it has placed in both starts. Those came against some nice types. Might be able to dictate where the favourite goes.
    Next Best
    4 Delusions   F: 62187
      B(3) W(60.5)
     ( J-  Ted Nugent )
    Good enough to turn its last two starts around. Draws well in barrier three and we wouldn't be surprised to see it win.
    Include in Multis
    8 Jamaican Hurry   F: 62X41
      B(4) W(58.5)
     ( J-  Dean Yendall )
     ( T-  A & A Yargi )
    Won
    Dividends : $7.10 $2.10
    A last-start winner that could go on with it now. Capable of handling this class and the odds are appealing.
    Longer Odds
    2 Lady Loft   F: 1X839
      B(5) W(61)
    Worth sticking with at the price.

    Remarks

    A wide-open race with nice odds throughout
    race-image
    Des Moines could back bounce

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 8 $ 7.10
    Place1 8 $ 2.10
    Place2 11 $ 3.40
    Place3 7 $ 1.40
    Quinella 8:11 $ 45.10
    Trifecta 8:11:7 $ 300.00
    First4 8:11:7:5 $ 1340.60
    Double 2/8 $ 13.40

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    2, 4, 5, 7, 8
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 3 - MERCEDES-BENZ MORNINGTON HANDICAP
    Time: 3:25 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    The 'Day's Best'
    11 Too Good Too Hard   F: 4115X
      B(9) W(55.5)
     ( J-  Luke Nolen )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.50
    Scored three wins from its first six starts, including back-to-back victories. Drawn a touch awkwardly but it has good upside.
    Main Danger
    2 Not Enough Effort   F: 6X38X
      B(6) W(60.5)
     ( J-  Brian Park )
    Only fair in two runs last time in work. However, it looked good during its first preparation. Chance if it brings its best form.
    Next Best
    9 Raktoff   F: 1114X
      B(3) W(56.5)
     ( J-  G Cartwright )
    Good enough to win three in a row last time in work. Finds form quickly and it gets a good run from the draw. Chance.
    Include in Multis
    8 I'm Telling Ya   F: 5X583
      B(4) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Dean Yendall )
     ( T-  A & A Yargi )
    Won
    Dividends : $4.10 $1.40
    Improving run for third last time out. Confidently backed with bookmakers and that's a good sign.
    Longer Odds
    7 Explicitly   F: X2615
      B(10) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Jamie Kah )
    Recent winner with upside.

    Remarks

    Looks like another even contest
    race-image
    Too Good Too Hard could be too good

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 8 $ 4.10
    Place1 8 $ 1.40
    Place2 11 $ 1.50
    Place3 10 $ 7.80
    Quinella 8:11 $ 6.70
    Trifecta 8:11:10 $ 288.90
    First4 8:11:10:5 $ 2298.10

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    2, 7, 8, 9, 11
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 4 - NO FUSS EVENT HIRE HANDICAP
    Time: 4:05 | Distance: 1000m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    8 Human Nature   F: 27X31
      B(4) W(56)
     ( J-  Michael Poy )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.20
    Scored well at Moonee Valley last start. No reason why that form won't stack up for this race. It's a talented type.
    Main Danger
    11 Sizzlefly   F: 9136X
      B(6) W(54.5)
    Won
    Dividends : $5.00 $1.60
    Unbeaten from two fresh up starts and that form should be respected. 54.5kg on the back and every chance to score.
    Next Best
    4 Iknewshewasmine   F: 34111
      B(2) W(58.5)
     ( J-  Jessica Eaton )
    Doing nothing wrong of late, winning three on the bounce. Can handle the rise in class and it's well-drawn.
    Include in Multis
    5 Messerschmitt   F: 0X132
      B(8) W(58)
     ( J-  Ben Melham )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.90
    Typically around the mark and it's a recent winner. Tough from the draw but it could add some each-way value to this race.
    Longer Odds
    The 'Best Roughie'
    9 Seatonic   F: 10X10
      B(3) W(56)
     ( J-  Ted Nugent )
    Fair last start but better fresh. Chance on that run.

    Remarks

    A quality field over the short course
    race-image
    Human Nature has ability

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 11 $ 5.00
    Place1 11 $ 1.60
    Place2 8 $ 1.20
    Place3 5 $ 1.90
    Quinella 8:11 $ 5.00
    Trifecta 11:8:5 $ 52.70
    First4 11:8:5:9 $ 243.10
    Trifecta - Selected!
    First 4 - Selected!

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    4, 5, 8, 9, 11
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 5 - PENINSULA ESSENCE MAGAZINE HANDICAP
    Time: 4:45 | Distance: 2000m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    2 Salsamor   F: 67311
      B(7) W(59)
    Won
    Dividends : $3.00 $1.50
    Back-to-back wins coming into this race and there's no reason to jump off its back. Firming in the market, so consider here.
    Main Danger
    8 Mirimar   F: 18X22
      B(10) W(54.5)
     ( J-  Jye McNeil )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.60
    The stable is running hot and this runner is knocking on the door. Gets in nicely on the weights and it should run accordingly.
    Next Best
    9 Maclairey   F: 37062
      B(1) W(54)
     ( J-  Beau Mertens )
     ( T-  Pat Carey )
    Coming to the end of its campaign but it could have a win in store. Gets the inside draw with a light weight, so consider.
    Include in Multis
    13 Bag Raider   F: X0546
      B(5) W(54)
     ( J-  Fred W Kersley )
    Chance with luck in running.
    Longer Odds
    12 All Hard Wood   F: X6716
      B(8) W(54)
     ( J-  Jamie Kah )
    Forget last run - nice win two back and could well surprise with a repeat

    Remarks

    Plenty of form throughout this race
    race-image
    Salsamor has the ability

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 2 $ 3.00
    Place1 2 $ 1.50
    Place2 5 $ 6.00
    Place3 8 $ 1.60
    Quinella 2:5 $ 51.40
    Trifecta 2:5:8 $ 234.90
    First4 2:5:8:4 $ 2305.50
    Double 11/2+ $ 11.50

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    2, 8, 9, 12, 13
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 6 - NEDS GUINEAS
    Time: 5:25 | Distance: 1600m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    8 Chuck A Luck   F: 126X3
      B(3) W(57)
     ( J-  Jye McNeil )
    Won
    Dividends : $4.30 $1.70
    Handy run first-up in Australia. It's only going to get better with time and it could be ready to strike now. Goes on top.
    Main Danger
    9 Themoonlitegambler   F: 312X1
      B(10) W(57)
     ( J-  John Allen )
    A nice start to its career with two wins and two placings. Respected in the betting and it just needs early luck from the draw.
    Next Best
    4 La Falaise   F: 461X0
      B(11) W(57)
     ( T-  Henry Dwyer )
    Better than what it showed last start. A past winner second up, it could return to winning form.
    Include in Multis
    12 Westport   F: 0X966
      B(5) W(56)
     ( J-  Jamie Kah )
    It looked the goods early on before going off the rails a touch. Finds form early on and that could show up.
    Longer Odds
    1 Yourdeel   F: L0X67
      B(12) W(60)
     ( J-  Regan Bayliss )
    It's now or never for the former Kiwi.

    Remarks

    A Kiwi heads the betting
    race-image
    Chuck A Luck represents the Kiwis

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 8 $ 4.30
    Place1 8 $ 1.70
    Place2 2 $ 4.50
    Place3 6 $ 2.80
    Quinella 2:8 $ 40.90
    Trifecta 8:2:6 $ 502.00
    First4 8:2:6:1 $ 3692.50

    Betting Suggestions

    Quaddies
    R6 (4) La Falaise(8) Chuck A Luck (9) Themoonlitegambler
    R7 (7) Inverloch(11) Aktau (14) Just Benjamin
    R8 (3) Bons Away(12) Prophet's Thumb (15) Diamond Effort
    R9 (1) Fanciful Toff(2) Declares War (3) Wham (7) Nudge Bar
    Quaddies % to a $20 stake:

    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 4, 8, 9, 12
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 7 - MORNINGTON CUP
    Time: 6:10 | Distance: 2400m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    The 'Best Each Way'
    7 Inverloch   F: 8X721
      B(5) W(54.5)
     ( J-  Linda Meech )
    Placed
    Dividend : $2.50
    Scored an impressive win last start and it looks likely to kick on with it. Drawn well, weighted well, and the odds appeal.
    Main Danger
    14 Just Benjamin   F: 2X514
      B(3) W(54)
     ( J-  Ben Melham )
    Looked good winning two back and it wasn't far behind them last start. Most of the money has come for it, so consider.
    Next Best
    11 Aktau   F: 1X131
      B(7) W(54)
     ( J-  Jye McNeil )
    Won
    Dividends : $4.50 $1.80
    Imported runner which has looked good since arriving in Australia. Impressive win last start, so stick with it.
    Include in Multis
    1 Harlem   F: 0X454
      B(1) W(60.5)
     ( J-  Jamie Kah )
    Good enough to win so include at odds.
    Longer Odds
    6 Vaucluse Bay   F: 21125
      B(4) W(56)
     ( J-  Luke Nolen )
    Incredibly consistent and although only 5th last Saturday, was beaten less than 4 lengths

    Remarks

    Big field for the Cup
    race-image
    Inverloch could go back-to-back

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 11 $ 4.50
    Place1 11 $ 1.80
    Place2 7 $ 2.50
    Place3 15 $ 6.90
    Quinella 7:11 $ 18.60
    Trifecta 11:7:15 $ 509.90
    First4 11:7:15:12 $ 4743.10

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 6, 7, 11, 14
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 8 - HAREEBA STAKES
    Time: 6:50 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    15 Diamond Effort   F: 80X11
      B(4) W(54)
     ( J-  Ben Melham )
    Won
    Dividends : $4.30 $1.90
    Back-to-back wins coming into this. That's hot form and it gets every chance with 54kg on the back. Goes close.
    Main Danger
    12 Prophet's Thumb   F: 9130X
      B(9) W(54)
    It has been well-backed to win. It has won two from three fresh up starts, and it has an explosive turn-of-foot on its day.
    Next Best
    3 Bons Away   F: 55X49
      B(6) W(58)
     ( J-  Jye McNeil )
    Has the talent to beat this field, it just needs some confidence back. Drawn well and it has been well-backed at odds.
    Include in Multis
    7 Haunted   F: 316X3
      B(15) W(56)
     ( J-  Ethan Brown )
    Handy third placing from fresh up and it has room for improvement. Just needs luck from the wide draw.
    Longer Odds
    4 Rich Charm   F: X490X
      B(8) W(57)
     ( J-  Brad Rawiller )
    Capable of bouncing back into form.

    Remarks

    Another open betting field
    race-image
    Diamond Effort goes close

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 15 $ 4.30
    Place1 15 $ 1.90
    Place2 9 $ 2.50
    Place3 8 $ 4.70
    Quinella 9:15 $ 14.20
    Trifecta 15:9:8 $ 525.10
    First4 15:9:8:16 $ 4123.20

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    3, 4, 7, 12, 15
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 9 - SAME RACE MULTI HANDICAP
    Time: 7:25 | Distance: 1600m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    2 Declares War   F: 710X7
      B(8) W(60)
     ( J-  Fred W Kersley )
     ( T-  Matt Cumani )
    Placed
    Dividend : $2.10
    Did enough fresh up to warrant attention. It has class on its side and it could return to winning form.
    Main Danger
    3 Wham   F: 34116
      B(5) W(59)
     ( J-  Ben Melham )
    Didn't fire at its most recent outing, but its form prior included back-to-back wins. It's good enough to take this out.
    Next Best
    1 Fanciful Toff   F: 1183X
      B(4) W(60.5)
     ( J-  Ted Nugent )
    It finds form quickly and it has a fair amount of ability. Drawn well and the odds are appealing.
    Include in Multis
    7 Nudge Bar   F: X3504
      B(2) W(55)
    Won
    Dividends : $5.40 $1.70
    Gets in well off on the weights and punters are getting nice odds. Big chance in this.
    Longer Odds
    5 Pierrless   F: 11128
      B(9) W(58)
     ( J-  Luke Nolen )
    Good enough to win three straight this season. Chance.

    Remarks

    Quality field to close
    race-image
    Declares War should go close

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 7 $ 5.40
    Place1 7 $ 1.70
    Place2 11 $ 2.40
    Place3 2 $ 2.10
    Quinella 7:11 $ 25.40
    Trifecta 7:11:2 $ 220.10
    First4 7:11:2:8 $ 1327.50

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 2, 3, 5, 7
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%