M2 Ellerslie – 16th February 2019

Selections for: New Zealand Racing

Our selections for the M2 Ellerslie – 16th February 2019 are below: Good Luck! Back to Performance page

M2 Ellerslie – 16th February 2019

M2: Ellerslie - 16th Feb, 2019

Start time:12:25 pm
Weather:Fine
Track:Good3

Overview

Beautiful weather and a beautiful track for the Avondale Cup and Guineas meeting at Ellerslie

Day's "Best"

R4 (4) Tightlign

Best "Each Way"

R2 (1) Breezon

Best "Roughie"

R7 (11) Gundown

Race 1 - SUPERFENCE 1200
Time: 12:25 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
3 Tiger Silk   F: 81101
  B(1) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Andrew Calder )
Indicative Odds: $5.50
Three wins from its last four and although it didn't fire two back, it bounced back in fine style. Signs of a good horse and it goes on top in a tough race.
Main Danger
8 Wekaforce   F: 2248X
  B(5) W(55.5)
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Indicative Odds: $5.00
Gets down nicely in the weights and it has the ability to put this field away. Didn't let down last campaign but anything close to its best is good enough.
Next Best
1 Cavallo Veloce   F: 58101
  B(2) W(58.5)
 ( J-  Shaun McKay )
 ( T-  Peter McKay )
Indicative Odds: $4.60
Had no right to win last start but still mustered plenty to win. That's a good sign for this and it could bounce back after a poor showing at Ellerslie two back.
Include in Multis
5 She's A Thief   F: 42X74
  B(8) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Jake Bayliss )
Indicative Odds: $3.80
Stable is on fire and it has needed both runs back this campaign. Watch for it to settle off what should be a hot speed and fire at them quickly.
Longer Odds
6 Autumn Wild   F: 17691
  B(6) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Craig Grylls )
Indicative Odds: $16.00
Has had its supporters throughout its career and the double-figure odds are handy.

Remarks

Talented field with winning form a plenty
race-image
Tiger Silk winning at Ellerslie

Results

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 3, 5, 6, 8
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 2 - PAPATOETOE GLASS 1200
Time: 1:00 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top PickThe 'Best Each Way'
1 Breezon   F: 7X413
  B(10) W(59.5)
 ( J-  Lisa Allpress )
Indicative Odds: $8.00
Has been around the mark all campaign, including a win at Te Aroha. Fair enough last time out and despite the draw, it should figure in the finish.
Main Danger
8 Tattle   F: X0X1X
  B(4) W(57)
 ( T-  Cody Cole )
Indicative Odds: $5.50
Fairly average before winning last start but the floodgates might open now. There is good betting support coming so that's a good sign.
Next Best
3 The Fame Game   F: 0X132
  B(11) W(59.5)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Indicative Odds: $3.60
2.8-length win to kick off this campaign and has run well since. Tough draw and big weight but there's plenty of support coming its way.
Include in Multis
6 Honesty   F: X3226
  B(12) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Chris Johnson )
Indicative Odds: $8.50
For lack of a better word, it's an honest customer. Johnson might need to ride patiently but he's the man for that. Include here.
Longer Odds
7 Cin Cin   F: 70X12
  B(7) W(57)
 ( J-  Darren Danis )
Indicative Odds: $11.00
Nothing wrong with its last couple and it's good enough to run well at each way odds.

Remarks

Progressive field where many of these could make the rise through the grades
race-image
Should be a close contest

Results

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 3, 6, 7, 8
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 3 - WIRELESS RENTALS 1500
Time: 1:35 | Distance: 1500m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
7 Raposa Rapida   F: 0X263
  B(5) W(58)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Indicative Odds: $3.80
Threatening to win another race and gets its chance to do so here. Should get a nice drag into the race and be tough to beat. Placed at its only start at Ellerslie.
Main Danger
6 William Tell   F: 32431
  B(1) W(58.5)
 ( J-  Andrew Calder )
Indicative Odds: $4.60
Easy as you like at Avondale last time out and that form could kick on for this. Inside draw is only a positive and it should go well again.
Next Best
4 Acutus   F: 17033
  B(9) W(59)
 ( T-  J & B Vance )
Indicative Odds: $3.80
Getting close to a win after consecutive placings but it will have to contend with a wide draw. Needs a good ride.
Include in Multis
1 Iffindoubt   F: 00275
  B(3) W(59.5)
Indicative Odds: $4.60
Doesn't seemingly enjoy winning but it has been taking on some tough opposition and should find this easier. Punters are respecting its chances.
Longer Odds
3 The Rebel Knight   F: 14096
  B(10) W(59.5)
Indicative Odds: $17.00
Has the ability to steal a race, as it did when fresh up. Nice odds on show.

Remarks

Another field with plenty of each-way types engaged
race-image
William Tell could get the apples

Results

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 3, 4, 6, 7
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 4 - STELLA ARTOIS 1600
Time: 2:10 | Distance: 1600m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top PickThe 'Day's Best'
4 Tightlign   F: 4X214
  B(4) W(58.5)
Indicative Odds: $3.20
Didn't get all chance at Te Rapa last start on a track which was well below par. Better surface here and that's going to help its chances.
Main Danger
11 Vichy   F: 82131
  B(8) W(55.5)
 ( J-  Rosie Myers )
Indicative Odds: $7.00
Still learning the game but it has won two from five starts and it has a nice light weight. Nice odds on offer.
Next Best
10 Rubira   F: 075X5
  B(9) W(55.5)
 ( J-  Craig Grylls )
Indicative Odds: $8.50
Has had its supporters throughout its career and it could finally repay that faith. Nearing double-figure odds and could add some value.
Include in Multis
5 Sandrine   F: X2224
  B(3) W(58)
 ( J-  Cameron Lammas )
Indicative Odds: $5.00
Has been desperately unlucky not to win this campaign. Second in three consecutive runs after trying to chase down the winner. Chance again.
Longer Odds
1 Savapak   F: 62723
  B(5) W(59)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Indicative Odds: $9.00
Brings in good experience and is rarely far away from the action. Goes into the mix.

Remarks

Bookmakers once again offering good odds for most
race-image
Tightlign is a classy customer

Results

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 4, 5, 10, 11
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 5 - DUNSTAN FEEDS 1200
Time: 2:45 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
7 Ever Loyal   F: 245X2
  B(1) W(54)
 ( J-  Michael McNab )
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Indicative Odds: $2.30
Second behind an Australian-performed type last start. That form is red-hot for this and the 54kg only helps its chances. Big chance.
Main Danger
14 Spring Heat   F: 45X10
  B(8) W(53)
 ( J-  Lisa Allpress )
Indicative Odds: $6.00
Three-time winner from seven starts which failed last start but has been backed to win this. That's a good sign and that should instill confidence with punters.
Next Best
11 Rikki Tikki Tavi   F: 58624
  B(4) W(53)
 ( J-  Cameron Lammas )
Indicative Odds: $7.00
Winning has been problematic but the 53kg is a bonus and it could benefit from a quick tempo up front. Watch for it late.
Include in Multis
2 Bisou Bisou   F: 11677
  B(5) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Opie Bosson )
 ( T-  Nigel Tiley )
Indicative Odds: $10.00
Change of stable has helped somewhat and its win four back was superb. Chance to get back to that form here.
Longer Odds
1 Santa Monica   F: 23215
  B(3) W(60)
 ( J-  Trudy Thornton )
Indicative Odds: $11.00
Group 1 winner two back and that form must be considered here. Not far away last start either.

Remarks

Most of the money coming with the Pike-trained runner
race-image
Ever Loyal has more wins in store

Results

Betting Suggestions

Quaddies
R5 (7) Ever Loyal(11) Rikki Tikki Tavi (14) Spring Heat
R6 (1) Vernanme(3) Surely Sacred (4) Cutadeel (16) Nobu
R7 (2) Five To Midnight(3) Mongolian Marshal (4) Glory Days (11) Gundown
R8 (2) Nobu(4) Scaglioni (5) River Run
Quaddies % to a $20 stake:

Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 2, 7, 11, 14
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 6 - SCHWEPPES AVONDALE GUINEAS
Time: 3:22 | Distance: 2100m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
4 Cutadeel   F: 46111
  B(8) W(56.5)
Indicative Odds: $2.80
Has looked the best Derby hope since putting together three consecutive wins. Another Dundeel gelding which is flying the flag. Looks a nice type in the making.
Main Danger
3 Surely Sacred   F: 1215
  B(6) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Vinnie Colgan )
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Indicative Odds: $4.40
1.4 lengths behind Long Leaf in the Karaka Million 3YO. Form prior was solid without being amazing but it will shape into a nice type.
Next Best
16 Nobu   F:
  B(16)
 ( J-  )
Indicative Odds: $9.50
Respect the Australians and we should always learn that. Nice win two back and it only needs to run moderately well to finish close.
Include in Multis
1 Vernanme   F: 43152
  B(11) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Indicative Odds: $9.00
Having its sixth start this campaign and it's fighting fit. Only the draw is a worry but it shouldn't matter too much over this distance.
Longer Odds
5 The Chosen One   F: 10224
  B(10) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Craig Grylls )
Indicative Odds: $18.00
Not much wrong with its recent form and if it performs up to its early form, watch out.

Remarks

The form stacks up well for the NZ Derby next month
race-image
Cutadeel has bigger ambitions

Results

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 3, 4, 5, 16
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 7 - COCA-COLA AVONDALE CUP
Time: 3:55 | Distance: 2400m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
2 Five To Midnight   F: 18351
  B(11) W(59)
 ( T-  Lisa Latta )
Indicative Odds: $4.80
Did it well enough when winning the Karaka Cup and that form could continue on through to this. Big weight but what's new for this runner. Value chance.
Main Danger
3 Mongolian Marshal   F: 12132
  B(12) W(54.5)
Indicative Odds: $3.00
Probably has the most upside going forward. Consistent as they come and it deserves to be one of the better-favoured runners in this field.
Next Best
4 Glory Days   F: 11102
  B(4) W(52.5)
Indicative Odds: $5.50
Won four on the bounce earlier this season before running second last start in an easier race. Drops big time in weight to 52.5kg which is a massive relief.
Include in Multis
10 Final Suggestion   F: 10711
  B(13) W(52)
 ( J-  Cameron Lammas )
Indicative Odds: $18.00
Looking for its third consecutive win and form is good for the Avondale Cup. Adds plenty of value.
Longer OddsThe 'Best Roughie'
11 Gundown   F: 18825
  B(10) W(52)
 ( J-  Sam Spratt )
Indicative Odds: $18.00
Might not have its supporters but it can stay and carrying only 52kg is ideal. Looks a nice bet at odds.

Remarks

Always a quality guide for the 3200m feature to come
race-image
Mongolian Marshal will have its backers

Results

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
2, 3, 4, 10, 11
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 8 - AUCKLAND CO-OP TAXIS 2100
Time: 4:30 | Distance: 2100m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
2 Nobu   F: 43314
  B(15) W(59.5)
 ( J-  Opie Bosson )
Indicative Odds: $2.60
Handy Australian and it won't have to be special to win this race. Horror draw however but class should take it a long way.
Main Danger
5 River Run   F: 32815
  B(5) W(59)
 ( J-  Vinnie Colgan )
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Indicative Odds: $4.00
Impressive winner two back and it wasn't far behind them last start. Tricky form guide but it should be around the mark.
Next Best
4 Scaglioni   F: 35025
  B(13) W(59.5)
 ( T-  Mark Evans )
Indicative Odds: $12.00
Never too far away from the prize and bookmakers are giving punters very generous odds. Only needs some early luck to figure in the finish.
Include in Multis
14 Star Karen   F: 87510
  B(12) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Andrew Calder )
Indicative Odds: $23.00
Has been highly-touted for most of the season and blows out to good odds for this. Goes into the mix.
Longer Odds
17 Bet She Is   F: X0294
  B(4) W(55.5)
 ( J-  Michael McNab )
Indicative Odds: $23.00
Showed improvement last start and it's one for odds.

Remarks

Nobu is the favourite if it misses the run in the Guineas
race-image
Close field on paper

Results

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
2, 4, 5, 14, 17
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%