M2 Ellerslie – 29th February 2020

Selections for: New Zealand Racing

Our selections for the M2 Ellerslie – 29th February 2020 are below: Good Luck! Back to Performance page

M2 Ellerslie – 29th February 2020

M2: Ellerslie - 29th Feb, 2020

Start time:12:25 pm
Weather:Fine
Track:Dead4

Overview

It's Derby Day! Cracking 10-race card at Ellerslie

Day's "Best"

R7 (2) Run To Perfection

Best "Each Way"

R8 (3) Its Destinys Child

Best "Roughie"

R4 (11) Shipshape
  • Race 1 - CURRAGHMORE 1600
    Time: 12:25 | Distance: 1600m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    2 Star Tsar   F: 13
      B(4) W(59)
    Won
    Dividends : $1.70 $1.00
    Looks the one to beat after scoring a good win on debut. Ran third last start but had no luck throughout and it could have the class edge.
    Main Danger
    1 Thomas Aquinas   F: X5824
      B(6) W(60)
     ( J-  Chelsea Burdan )
    Gets 3kg off its back, which helps its cause. Recent placing was good and it could add some value at each-way odds.
    Next Best
    3 The Buzz   F: 57044
      B(5) W(59)
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.80
    Finding it hard to win a race but it has good experience to call upon. Gets some help with the 1kg off its back, so consider.
    Include in Multis
    4 Playsameanpinball   F: 52431
      B(7) W(58.5)
     ( T-  Steven Cole )
    Comes into this race having broken maiden status last start. It could kick on with it and it has placed at Ellerslie.
    Longer Odds
    6 My Zulu Warrior   F: 7X752
      B(1) W(58.5)
    Handy run last start so consider at the odds.

    Remarks

    Plenty of betting moves in the opening race
    race-image
    Star Tsar could start the day off right

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 2 $ 1.70
    Place1 2 $ 1.00
    Place2 3 $ 1.80
    Place3 5 $ 2.90
    Quinella 2:3 $ 5.30
    Trifecta 2:3:5 $ 38.70
    First4 2:3:5:4 $ 140.00

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 2, 3, 4, 6
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 2 - HEADQUARTERS VIADUCT NATHANS MEMORIAL
    Time: 1:00 | Distance: 2200m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    6 Dance Card   F: 64141
      B(1) W(55.5)
     ( J-  Leith Innes )
     ( T-  Lance Noble )
    Gutsy winner last start and it looks like a nice stayer on the rise. Draws the rail and it hasn't been punished in the weights.
    Main Danger
    5 Voler Pour Moi   F: 04531
      B(6) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Taiki Yanagida )
    Won
    Dividends : $4.70 $1.80
    Capable of going back-to-back after winning impressively last start. Gets in with 54.5kg after the claim and that could count late.
    Next Best
    3 Starrybeel   F: 97310
      B(7) W(58)
    Enigmatic type that looked good winning earlier this campaign but didn't show much last start. Talented at best, so include.
    Include in Multis
    2 All In Vogue   F: 95043
      B(4) W(58.5)
    Better effort for third coming into this race and it's steadily working towards a nice run. Chance at odds.
    Longer Odds
    4 Final Suggestion   F: 60230
      B(8) W(57)
    Placed
    Dividend : $2.40
    Capable of causing an upset.

    Remarks

    Open staying race
    race-image
    Dance Card could go back-to-back

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 5 $ 4.70
    Place1 5 $ 1.80
    Place2 4 $ 2.40
    Place3 7 $ 2.60
    Quinella 4:5 $ 24.10
    Trifecta 5:4:7 $ 286.10
    First4 5:4:7:1 $ 2037.80
    Double 2+/5 $ 6.60

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    2, 3, 4, 5, 6
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 3 - VERTICAL LOGISTICS 1400
    Time: 1:35 | Distance: 1400m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    11 Shoshone   F: 1X6
      B(11) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Cameron Lammas )
     ( T-  K & B Kelso )
    Not much went right for it last start. It was a fair effort and it looked good on debut. Just needs luck from the draw.
    Main Danger
    2 Packing Rockstar   F: 5X16
      B(1) W(59)
     ( J-  Jason Waddell )
    Won
    Dividends : $3.00 $1.50
    Conditions didn't suit entirely last time out. Looked good prior to that and drawing the inside could help switch it on. Solid chance.
    Next Best
    6 Baby Face   F: X351X
      B(9) W(57)
    Ended its last campaign with a win and it's talented at best. Punters are getting good value fresh up and it shouldn't be overlooked.
    Include in Multis
    1 Victory Glory   F: 331
      B(8) W(59)
     ( J-  Shaun McKay )
     ( T-  Chris Wood )
    Ended two solid placings with a tough win. A touch harder here but it's being specked in the betting and it could run a solid race.
    Longer Odds
    4 Willy Away   F: 4190X
      B(2) W(58.5)
     ( T-  Jon Miller )
    Capable of striking in a fresh state. Chance.

    Remarks

    One of the more even betting fields on the card
    race-image
    Shoshone has upside

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 2 $ 3.00
    Place1 2 $ 1.50
    Place2 5 $ 4.20
    Place3 8 $ 4.40
    Quinella 2:5 $ 27.40
    Trifecta 2:5:8 $ 394.50
    First4 2:5:8:1 $ 3367.00
    Treble 2+/5/2+ $ 26.70

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 2, 4, 6, 11
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 4 - GO RACING SYNDICATIONS 1200
    Time: 2:10 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    1 Acutus   F: 25411
      B(4) W(61)
     ( J-  Darren Danis )
     ( T-  J & B Vance )
    Impressive in winning its last two starts. Goes up in weight but it does get 2kg coming off the back. Not the best form at this track but it goes on top.
    Main Danger
    3 Riding The Wave   F: 72301
      B(8) W(60)
     ( J-  Jason Waddell )
     ( T-  Nigel Tiley )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.70
    The penny might have dropped last time out. That was a nice win and despite the weight, it could be right in the action. Chance.
    Next Best
    9 Manchu   F: 93224
      B(10) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Leith Innes )
     ( T-  Lance Noble )
    Capable on its day and it showed that when running consecutive second placings this season. Chance if it brings its best form.
    Include in Multis
    12 Threadtheneedle   F: 54131
      B(5) W(55.5)
    Two wins from its last three starts, and it's hard to overlook that form. Capable of beating a field of this nature.
    Longer Odds
    The 'Best Roughie'
    11 Shipshape   F: 55151
      B(9) W(55.5)
    Impressive win last start and it can handle the rise in class. Nice odds.

    Remarks

    Another competitive race, this time over the sprint journey
    race-image
    Acutus should run well

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 8 $ 18.30
    Place1 8 $ 4.70
    Place2 3 $ 1.70
    Place3 5 $ 3.00
    Quinella 3:8 $ 36.90
    Trifecta 8:3:5 $ 731.30
    First4 8:3:5:1 $ 4150.40
    Double 2+/8 $ 44.50

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 3, 9, 11, 12
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 5 - GRAEME THOMSON ANTIQUE & ESTATE JEWELLERY 1500
    Time: 2:45 | Distance: 1500m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    11 Swords Drawn   F: 12139
      B(2) W(54)
     ( J-  Sam Weatherley )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.50
    Perplexing run last start but we're prepared to give it another chance. Drawn well and it should prove tough to beat with 54kg on the back.
    Main Danger
    9 Jip Jip Rock   F: 17332
      B(6) W(54)
    Drops down to 52kg after the claim. Good enough to beat a field of this quality and punters are getting good odds.
    Next Best
    5 Crafty Jess   F: 17623
      B(8) W(57.5)
    Hit the line with real power last time out. That could be a sign of things to come and we're expecting a tidy effort.
    Include in Multis
    2 Tweedledee   F: 25521
      B(7) W(58.5)
     ( J-  Taiki Yanagida )
    Placed
    Dividend : $3.90
    Going well and comes into this having won nicely last start. Gets relief with the weight and it could add some double-figure value.
    Longer Odds
    10 Iron Eagle   F: 61437
      B(11) W(54)
     ( J-  Shaun McKay )
     ( T-  Peter McKay )
    Won
    Dividends : $11.10 $3.30
    Just needs luck to figure in the finish.

    Remarks

    Bookies are offering good value throughout this race
    race-image
    Swords Drawn has bounce back claims

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 10 $ 11.10
    Place1 10 $ 3.30
    Place2 11 $ 1.50
    Place3 2 $ 3.90
    Quinella 10:11 $ 14.80
    Trifecta 10:11:2 $ 369.20
    First4 10:11:2:6 $ 4891.50
    Quaddie 5/2+/8/10 $ 8105.20
    Trifecta - Selected!

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    2, 5, 9, 10, 11
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 6 - MCKEE FAMILY SUNLINE VASE (G3)
    Time: 3:20 | Distance: 2100m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    1 Bergamot   F: 31527
      B(4) W(56.5)
    Got too far back last start and subsequently never had a winning chance. Needs to settle closer, where it should be tough to beat.
    Main Danger
    2 Seven Seas   F: 65211
      B(6) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Rosie Myers )
     ( T-  Tony Pike )
    Looked the goods its last couple of starts. That form has been franked and it's a genuine stakes type. Watch late betting moves.
    Next Best
    3 Karalino   F: 27255
      B(3) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Craig Grylls )
    Placed
    Dividend : $2.30
    Not winning races but it has been competing against some good fields. Likely to add value to the market.
    Include in Multis
    6 Meghan   F: 36211
      B(7) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Leith Innes )
     ( T-  Lance Noble )
    Placed
    Dividend : $2.00
    Shooting for its third consecutive win. Has every chance of doing so and the confidence is high. Each-way odds available.
    Longer Odds
    9 Communique   F: 33148
      B(8) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Michael Walker )
    Won
    Dividends : $9.30 $2.80
    Mixing form but its best could take it close.

    Remarks

    Plenty of action at the top of the book
    race-image
    Bergamot looks a top chance

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 9 $ 9.30
    Place1 9 $ 2.80
    Place2 3 $ 2.30
    Place3 6 $ 2.00
    Quinella 3:9 $ 25.50
    Trifecta 9:3:6 $ 315.00
    First4 9:3:6:1 $ 1037.00
    Double 10/9 $ 90.60
    Trifecta - Selected!
    First 4 - Selected!

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 2, 3, 6, 9
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 7 - MUFHASA FASTTRACK STAKES
    Time: 3:55 | Distance: 1300m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    The 'Day's Best'
    2 Run To Perfection   F: 12412
      B(9) W(56)
     ( J-  Jason Waddell )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.40
    Form is coming around some very slick types. Drawn a touch awkwardly but there is no Catalyst in this field. Top chance.
    Main Danger
    6 Star Of Bombay   F: 2113
      B(4) W(54)
     ( J-  Ryan Elliot )
    Won
    Dividends : $6.50 $1.90
    In good form and it should hold up nicely. Good enough to score back-to-back wins and another here wouldn't be a surprise.
    Next Best
    3 Hasstobegood   F: 14323
      B(6) W(54)
    It is good and it just needs to turn the consistent form into winning form. 54kg helps and it must be included on talent alone.
    Include in Multis
    8 Avadane   F: 10731
      B(1) W(54)
     ( J-  Leith Innes )
     ( T-  Lance Noble )
    Returned to form last start and it has upset claims off the inside draw with the light weight. Generous odds.
    Longer Odds
    9 Madam Hass   F: 11243
      B(2) W(54)
    Talented but a change in tactics could be applied here. Don't leave out.

    Remarks

    Good race to kick off the quaddie
    race-image
    Run To Perfection should run close

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 6 $ 6.50
    Place1 6 $ 1.90
    Place2 5 $ 3.60
    Place3 2 $ 1.40
    Quinella 5:6 $ 58.80
    Trifecta 6:5:2 $ 393.10
    First4 6:5:2:7 $ 5237.20

    Betting Suggestions

    Quaddies
    R7 (2) Run To Perfection(3) Hasstobegood (6) Star Of Bombay
    R8 (3) Its Destinys Child(4) Sheezallmine (7) Spring Heat (12) Red Chois
    R9 (1) Dragon Leap(16) Two Illicit
    R10 (6) Rip Em Up(8) Hasabro (11) Gravitelle
    Quaddies % to a $20 stake:

    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    2, 3, 6, 8, 9
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 8 - HAUNUI FARM KING'S PLATE (G3)
    Time: 4:30 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    The 'Best Each Way'
    3 Its Destinys Child   F: X1191
      B(5) W(54)
     ( J-  Andrew Calder )
     ( T-  J & B Vance )
    Placed
    Dividend : $2.40
    Tough to look past its form of three wins from the last four starts. Every chance of winning again given the weight.
    Main Danger
    4 Sheezallmine   F: 02103
      B(2) W(54)
     ( J-  Cameron Lammas )
    Didn't get much luck in the run last start when getting caught behind runners. Hit the line well and that bodes well for a good run.
    Next Best
    7 Spring Heat   F: 77X13
      B(7) W(53)
    Won
    Dividends : $3.60 $1.80
    Big run for third in the Telegraph last start. Helped by the 53kg on its back and we could see another big effort. Right in the mix.
    Include in Multis
    12 Red Chois   F: 51391
      B(6) W(53)
     ( J-  Craig Grylls )
    Continues to defy them and usually pays generous odds. Four-time winner over this distance and it has strong each-way hopes.
    Longer Odds
    5 Evalina   F: X7137
      B(13) W(53.5)
    Has upside and scored a recent win.

    Remarks

    Loose favourite and good value throughout
    race-image
    Its Destinys Child is a nice sort

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 7 $ 3.60
    Place1 7 $ 1.80
    Place2 3 $ 2.40
    Place3 6 $ 2.60
    Quinella 3:7 $ 11.90
    Trifecta 7:3:6 $ 130.80
    First4 7:3:6:4 $ 485.00

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    3, 4, 5, 7, 12
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 9 - VODAFONE NZ DERBY (G1)
    Time: 5:05 | Distance: 2400m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    16 Two Illicit   F: 11211
      B(5) W(54.5)
     ( J-  Vinnie Colgan )
    Placed
    Dividend : $1.20
    Couldn't have been any more impressive when winning last time out. Makes its own luck and it should be going close.
    Main Danger
    1 Dragon Leap   F: 1211
      B(12) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Jason Waddell )
    The obvious next best. Brings in stellar Derby form and it could easily towel this field by lengths. Likely a match race between the first two.
    Next Best
    2 Sherwood Forest   F: 13413
      B(11) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Michael Walker )
     ( T-  Tony Pike )
    Won
    Dividends : $13.50 $2.70
    Quality stayer that lacks a turn-of-foot, but it will be there throughout, grinding away. Could add some value to this race.
    Include in Multis
    3 Scorpz   F: 11132
      B(2) W(56.5)
    Placed
    Dividend : $2.70
    Nothing wrong with its form and punters are getting odds worth taking. Consistency is key in the Derby.
    Longer Odds
    15 Platinum Spirit   F: 34033
      B(10) W(56.5)
     ( J-  Rosie Myers )
     ( T-  Lisa Latta )
    It happened last year, so a big upset could happen again.

    Remarks

    Top-end ability is very good this year
    race-image
    Two Illicit could be too good

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 2 $ 13.50
    Place1 2 $ 2.70
    Place2 16 $ 1.20
    Place3 3 $ 2.70
    Quinella 2:16 $ 11.40
    Trifecta 2:16:3 $ 199.70
    First4 2:16:3:1 $ 357.70
    Trifecta - Selected!
    First 4 - Selected!

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 2, 3, 15, 16
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%
  • Race 10 - BARFOOT & THOMPSON 2100
    Time: 5:40 | Distance: 2100m | Prize $

  • Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

      View Full Field
    Top Pick
    11 Gravitelle   F: 40114
      B(3) W(55.5)
     ( J-  Leith Innes )
     ( T-  Lance Noble )
    Nice type in the making despite running fourth last start. Two wins prior were top efforts and it could return to winning form.
    Main Danger
    6 Rip Em Up   F: 38113
      B(10) W(57.5)
     ( J-  Jason Waddell )
    Owns a good turn-of-foot so pace up front will be important. Just needs some luck from the draw, but it shouldn't matter over this distance.
    Next Best
    8 Hasabro   F: 55016
      B(1) W(57.5)
     ( J-  Taiki Yanagida )
    Placed
    Dividend : $3.40
    Makes its own luck and it's way over the odds. Good enough to have gone to Australia and the confidence is up.
    Include in Multis
    7 Special Light   F: 50283
      B(9) W(57.5)
     ( T-  Tony Pike )
    Finding it hard to win races, but it's rarely too far away. Consider on an each-way basis.
    Longer Odds
    1 Roc Wheeler   F: 19514
      B(4) W(59.5)
     ( J-  Sam Weatherley )
    Never too far away from it.

    Remarks

    Good field to close the Derby card
    race-image
    Gravitelle is a likely contender

    Results

    Race Dividends
    Win 9 $ 10.40
    Place1 9 $ 2.70
    Place2 8 $ 3.40
    Place3 13 $ 5.00
    Quinella 8:9 $ 55.00
    Trifecta 9:8:13 $ 1449.50
    First4 9:8:13:4 $ 12337.50
    Double 2/9 $ 56.70

    Betting Suggestions


    Multi's
    Boxed Tri's and FF's
    1, 6, 7, 8, 11
    RETURNS - $20 STAKE
    Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
    Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%