M2 Ellerslie – 2nd March 2019

Selections for: New Zealand Racing

Our selections for the M2 Ellerslie – 2nd March 2019 are below: Good Luck! Back to Performance page

M2 Ellerslie – 2nd March 2019

M2: Ellerslie - 2nd Mar, 2019

Start time:12:15 pm
Weather:Fine
Track:Good3

Overview

Derby Day is always worth watching and punting on. Great 10-race card from Ellerslie where feature racing runs throughout the day.

Day's "Best"

R7 (12) Queen Of The Air

Best "Each Way"

R8 (2) Ferrando

Best "Roughie"

R2 (11) Spindle

Race 1 - THE POND PREMIUM RECRUITMENT 1200
Time: 12:15 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

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Top Pick
6 One Bakerstreet   F: X17X1
  B(4) W(58)
 ( J-  Ryan Elliot )
Scored with ease last time out by two lengths. Meets a harder field here but it looks a nice mare on the rise. Has been well backed.
Main Danger
9 Santa Catarina   F: X200X
  B(1) W(57)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Placed
Dividend : $1.70
Comes back from a failed campaign in Sydney where it beat two runners home from two starts. Form in NZ would take it close here.
Next Best
2 Maktoum   F: X1713
  B(8) W(59.5)
 ( J-  Sam Spratt )
Won
Dividends : $6.80 $2.20
Owns form against some smart types, which includes two wins from its last three starts. Two wins have come on this track so consider.
Include in Multis
7 Monaco   F: 34112
  B(12) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Trudy Thornton )
Placed
Dividend : $2.60
Wasn't disgraced last week and the quick back up could do it some good. Tricky draw but doesn't always matter around Ellerslie.
Longer Odds
3 Star Treasure   F: 30434
  B(5) W(59)
 ( J-  Taiki Yanagida )
Former McKee runner which has form at Ellerslie and it could provide some value.

Remarks

Some slick types in the opening race
race-image
One Bakerstreet could go into fifth gear and win

Results

Race Dividends
Win 2 $ 6.80
Place1 2 $ 2.20
Place2 9 $ 1.70
Place3 7 $ 2.60
Quinella 2:9 $ 14.40
Trifecta 2:9:7 $ 285.80
First4 2:9:7:1 $ 998.50
Trifecta - Selected!

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
2, 3, 6, 7, 9
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 2 - BARFOOT & THOMPSON 1400
Time: 12:50 | Distance: 1400m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
4 Sahar   F: 2216X
  B(2) W(58.5)
Not too far behind a nice type at Otaki last start and that form should stack up nicely. Had good form prior, which includes a placing behind a leading Derby contender.
Main Danger
9 Honesty   F: 32264
  B(10) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Ryan Elliot )
Won
Dividends : $6.30 $2.00
Hasn't done much in two starts on this track but there were encouraging signs last time out. Drawn wide but there's enough support in the betting to consider it as a winning hope.
Next Best
1 The Fame Game   F: X1325
  B(11) W(59.5)
 ( J-  Trudy Thornton )
Impressive win fresh up and it's another which ran fairly in behind Monaco last start. Bred to enjoy longer distances.
Include in Multis
6 Raposa Rapida   F: X2632
  B(5) W(58.5)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Placed
Dividend : $2.10
Knocking on the door after multiple placings and it stays around the weight it has been carrying all campaign. Talented at best.
Longer OddsThe 'Best Roughie'
11 Spindle   F: 84262
  B(1) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Cameron Lammas )
Has lost that winning feeling but runs at value odds off the inside draw.

Remarks

There won't be much between these at the line
race-image
Spindle shouldn't be overlooked

Results

Race Dividends
Win 9 $ 6.30
Place1 9 $ 2.00
Place2 6 $ 2.10
Place3 7 $ 1.90
Quinella 6:9 $ 16.80
Trifecta 9:6:7 $ 179.90
First4 9:6:7:4 $ 426.60

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 4, 6, 9, 11
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 3 - GRAEME THOMSON ANTIQUE AND ESTATE JEWELLERY 1600
Time: 1:25 | Distance: 1600m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

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Top Pick
5 Nordic   F: 221
  B(10) W(58.5)
Capped off some consistent placings to win last time out at Avondale. Paid $1.70 on that occasion and punters are getting better odds here.
Main Danger
11 So You Sparkle   F: 05552
  B(5) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Vinnie Colgan )
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Placed
Dividend : $1.90
Got close to a win last time out and it's overdue a win. This combination has a good strike rate on Derby day so consider at each way odds.
Next Best
3 Acutus   F: 70335
  B(3) W(59)
 ( J-  Jake Bayliss )
 ( T-  J & B Vance )
Looked good when winning on debut but its subsequent starts have been only fair. Look for improvement.
Include in Multis
9 Incantesimo   F: 64387
  B(4) W(58)
 ( J-  Trudy Thornton )
Doesn't make a habit of winning but has been around the mark this season. Worth taking the risk at the current odds.
Longer Odds
1 Lucky Sweep   F: X8038
  B(8) W(60)
 ( J-  Sam Spratt )
Won
Dividends : $11.70 $3.50
Big weight to carry for a smaller-framed gelding but it has talent on its day.

Remarks

Many of these could progress through the grades
race-image
Nordic could navigate through the field and win

Results

Race Dividends
Win 1 $ 11.70
Place1 1 $ 3.50
Place2 6 $ 3.00
Place3 11 $ 1.90
Quinella 1:6 $ 70.40
Trifecta 1:6:11 $ 731.70
First4 1:6:11:9 $ 4823.80
Treble 2/9/1 $ 645.30

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 3, 5, 9, 11
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 4 - GO RACING SYNDICATIONS 1500
Time: 2:00 | Distance: 1500m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
11 Paisley Park   F: 1X131
  B(7) W(55.5)
Three wins from four starts and it's tough to discount that form. 55.5kg makes winning slightly easier and it could be a nice type in the making.
Main Danger
8 Podravina   F: 44123
  B(2) W(57)
Won
Dividends : $6.80 $2.40
Has filled a placing in each of its last three starts. Has more than enough speed to take this field and it has drawn to get every chance.
Next Best
5 Swisswatch   F: 17291
  B(6) W(58)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Likely to hand up the lead to The Mitigator and receive a sweet trip in behind the speed. Always a chance when ridden properly.
Include in Multis
1 The Mitigator   F: 21238
  B(5) W(61.5)
 ( J-  Shaun McKay )
 ( T-  Peter McKay )
Placed
Dividend : $2.60
Has good speed out of the barriers and if they go slow enough up front, it will be awfully tough to catch. Has been specked in the betting.
Longer Odds
7 The Bandito   F: 57213
  B(8) W(57.5)
 ( J-  Craig Grylls )
 ( T-  John Bary )
In good form and that could continue here. Runs at nice odds.

Remarks

Looks a competitive race on paper
race-image
A good ride sees Swiss Watch go close

Results

Race Dividends
Win 8 $ 6.80
Place1 8 $ 2.40
Place2 1 $ 2.60
Place3 10 $ 3.60
Quinella 1:8 $ 25.60
Trifecta 8:1:10 $ 531.20
First4 8:1:10:2 $ 7367.40

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 5, 7, 8, 11
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 5 - HEADQUARTERS VIADUCT NATHANS MEMORIAL HANDICAP
Time: 2:35 | Distance: 2200m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
9 Sacred Day   F: 18434
  B(11) W(53)
 ( J-  Rosie Myers )
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Could be a good day for the "Sacreds". Has had some excuses of late behind some nice middle-distance types and getting in at 53kg makes a difference.
Main Danger
1 Zacada   F: 800X6
  B(1) W(60)
Placed
Dividend : $2.20
Beat many home in the Melbourne Cup and that can't be overlooked. Gets an easy run off the inside draw and it's capable of carrying weight.
Next Best
5 Gundown   F: 88256
  B(3) W(53)
Won
Dividends : $4.60 $1.70
Hasn't quite lived up to potential this time in, except its win third up. Another which gets in well at the weights and should be considered on that alone.
Include in Multis
6 Artiste   F: 11331
  B(10) W(53)
 ( J-  Craig Grylls )
Did the job last start but faces a harder task here. Has two wins from three starts at Ellerslie and that's its biggest asset. Win hope.
Longer Odds
8 Kamanda Lincoln   F: 79495
  B(4) W(53)
 ( T-  Lisa Latta )
Placed
Dividend : $4.70
Chance if this becomes a staying contest. Could add some value at odds.

Remarks

Many different form lines coming into this
race-image
Zacada should prove tough to beat

Results

Race Dividends
Win 5 $ 4.60
Place1 5 $ 1.70
Place2 1 $ 2.20
Place3 8 $ 4.70
Quinella 1:5 $ 16.70
Trifecta 5:1:8 $ 296.30
First4 5:1:8:6 $ 1712.20
Quaddie 9/1/8/5 $ 3246.10
Trifecta - Selected!
First 4 - Selected!

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 5, 6, 8, 9
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 6 - MCKEE FAMILY SUNLINE VASE GROUP THREE
Time: 3:10 | Distance: 2100m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
12 Spring Delight   F: 23221
  B(14) W(56.5)
Needs to navigate the wide draw but we were impressed with its last start win at Avondale. Hit the line with purpose and it looks a stayer on the rise.
Main Danger
3 Elate   F: 66271
  B(10) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Troy Harris )
Twice a winner this season and that includes a last start win at New Plymouth. More open field here but it should run well at backable odds.
Next Best
7 Rubira   F: 75X55
  B(2) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Craig Grylls )
Only 1.6 and 1.5 lengths behind the winner its last couple. Only a one-race winner but has talent at best and it has experience racing against the best over the Tasman.
Include in Multis
6 Clementina   F: 45582
  B(3) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Placed
Dividend : $3.70
Comes into this race as a maiden but there have been signs of breaking through. Owns form behind the likes of Imelda Mary.
Longer Odds
5 Pullyoursocksup   F: 21343
  B(9) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Sam Spratt )
Didn't let down at Avondale but the small field made it a tactical affair. Better rolling along in front as it likes.

Remarks

Value isn't hard to come by in the betting
race-image
Stick with Spring Delight

Results

Race Dividends
Win 2 $ 5.50
Place1 2 $ 2.30
Place2 6 $ 3.70
Place3 8 $ 2.20
Quinella 2:6 $ 37.40
Trifecta 2:6:8 $ 482.60
First4 2:6:8:11 $ 10590.60
Treble 8/5/2+ $ 248.30

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
3, 5, 6, 7, 12
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 7 - MUFHASA FASTTRACK STAKES
Time: 3:45 | Distance: 1300m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top PickThe 'Day's Best'
12 Queen Of The Air   F: X10X1
  B(1) W(54)
 ( J-  Glen Boss )
Showed them a clean pair of heels when winning at Awapuni last start. That came by five lengths and drawing the inside with 54kg makes it tough to beat. Glen Boss takes the ride.
Main Danger
8 She's A Thief   F: 2X741
  B(6) W(54)
 ( J-  Jake Bayliss )
Placed
Dividend : $1.90
Won a good form guide last time out at Ellerslie. The drop in weight only helps its chances and it should be hitting the line powerfully again.
Next Best
1 King Louis   F: 31941
  B(7) W(57)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
 ( T-  John Bary )
Brings in different form lines to many of these. Has a placing behind Madison County to boast and it scored an upset win on this track last start. Include here.
Include in Multis
9 Tiger Silk   F: 11016
  B(5) W(54)
 ( J-  Andrew Calder )
Placed
Dividend : $2.80
Didn't get a fair crack at them in behind She's A Thief last start. Drops down in weight and is a past winner on the track. Don't discount.
Longer Odds
11 Wekaforce   F: 248X2
  B(2) W(54)
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Lost no admirers last start and it would be foolish to leave it out of calculations.

Remarks

Mufhasa Stakes and there's no lack of speed among its entrants
race-image
The Queen has been working well

Results

Race Dividends
Win 4 $ 13.70
Place1 4 $ 4.10
Place2 8 $ 1.90
Place3 9 $ 2.80
Quinella 4:8 $ 30.20
Trifecta 4:8:9 $ 597.70
First4 4:8:9:5 $ 6905.50

Betting Suggestions

Quaddies
R7 (1) King Louis(8) She's A Thief (9) Tiger Silk (12) Queen Of The Air
R8 (2) Ferrando(9) Spring Heat (10) Princess Kereru
R9 (1) Surely Sacred(2) Vernanme (18) Platinum Invador
R10 (5) Master Painton(7) Firefly (8) Fiscal Fantasy (13) Special Light
Quaddies % to a $20 stake:

Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 8, 9, 11, 12
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 8 - WAIKATO STUD PLATE GROUP THREE
Time: 4:20 | Distance: 1200m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top PickThe 'Best Each Way'
2 Ferrando   F: X1692
  B(10) W(55.5)
Good enough to run a cheeky race for fifth at Morphettville and that's not a bad effort against their sprinters. Own barrier speed which takes luck out of the equation.
Main Danger
10 Princess Kereru   F: 25127
  B(1) W(53)
 ( J-  Cameron Lammas )
Won
Dividends : $3.70 $1.60
Drawn to get all favours and 53kg on the back doesn't hurt. Not far behind a speed machine last start so it goes into the mix here.
Next Best
9 Spring Heat   F: 5X104
  B(12) W(53.5)
 ( J-  Glen Boss )
Needs an ounce of luck from out deep but it will likely drop back and hope for a break neck speed up front. Big chance if they fly along.
Include in Multis
1 Santa Monica   F: 32155
  B(7) W(56)
 ( J-  Trudy Thornton )
Placed
Dividend : $2.70
Upset winner of the Railway Stakes and it has run two competitive races since. Still slightly underrated because of the stable.
Longer Odds
7 Hasahalo   F: 8900X
  B(13) W(54.5)
 ( J-  Sam Spratt )
Out of form Group 1 winner but should always be respected, especially at Ellerslie.

Remarks

Another wide open field with value throughout in the betting
race-image
Ferrando owns slick pace

Results

Race Dividends
Win 10 $ 3.70
Place1 10 $ 1.60
Place2 4 $ 10.40
Place3 1 $ 2.70
Quinella 4:10 $ 96.60
Trifecta 10:4:1 $ 911.40
First4 10:4:1:8 $ 14657.00

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 2, 7, 9, 10
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 9 - VODAFONE NZ DERBY GROUP ONE
Time: 4:55 | Distance: 2400m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
1 Surely Sacred   F: 12151
  B(3) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Vinnie Colgan )
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Looks your classic Derby type and won the Avondale Guineas very well when stepping up in distance last time. Drawn to get everything go its way.
Main Danger
18 Platinum Invador   F: 11491
  B(11) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Chris Johnson )
 ( T-  Lisa Latta )
Placed
Dividend : $3.80
Hasn't beaten overly good fields down the line but it has a good turn-of-foot and could make making up big ground late. Johnson will no doubt provide a patient ride.
Next Best
2 Vernanme   F: 31523
  B(10) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Two lengths behind Surely Sacred last start and its run for second behind Madison Country stacks up well. Nice colt with a bright future.
Include in Multis
3 In A Twinkling   F: 47402
  B(5) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Glen Boss )
Placed
Dividend : $2.40
Battled on stoutly last time out and it's another good ride for Glen Boss. Runner up to Surely Sacred at very long odds last time and a lot shorter here
Longer Odds
16 Prise De Fer   F: 21265
  B(8) W(56.5)
 ( J-  Opie Bosson )
Opie Bosson chose to ride this one for Te Akau and that should be respected.

Remarks

The race they've all come to watch
race-image
Surely Sacred is the deserving favourite

Results

Race Dividends
Win 12 $ 105.40
Place1 12 $ 22.50
Place2 3 $ 2.40
Place3 18 $ 3.80
Quinella 3:12 $ 396.70
Trifecta 12:3:18 $ 10588.90
First4 12:3:18:17 $ 42739.10

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
1, 2, 3, 16, 18
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%

Race 10 - VERTICAL LOGISTICS 2100
Time: 5:30 | Distance: 2100m | Prize $

Selections (Click horse or jockey for additional information)

  View Full Field
Top Pick
8 Fiscal Fantasy   F: 31323
  B(12) W(58)
 ( J-  Jason Waddell )
Placed
Dividend : $2.30
Has been around the mark of late and despite a wide draw, it should go close to winning again. Has been firm in the market.
Main Danger
13 Special Light   F: 42211
  B(1) W(55.5)
 ( T-  Tony Pike )
Won
Dividends : $5.60 $2.20
Has won two in a row for Pike and it's capable of going three straight. Gets the inside draw and every chance to win.
Next Best
7 Firefly   F: 21133
  B(2) W(58)
 ( J-  Taiki Yanagida )
5.6 lengths behind Concert Hall last start but that form stands up nicely. Drawn well and it should be around the mark.
Include in Multis
5 Master Painton   F: 26012
  B(5) W(58.5)
 ( J-  Opie Bosson )
Going well enough to be considered here and it looked good winning two back. Followed that up with a good showing last start.
Longer Odds
6 Vittachi   F: 30942
  B(7) W(58.5)
 ( J-  Nik Bakar )
 ( T-  Jacob McKay )
Better run for second last start and it could run well at odds.

Remarks

Won't be much covering this field in the last
race-image
Fiscal Fantasy looks the goods

Results

Race Dividends
Win 13 $ 5.60
Place1 13 $ 2.20
Place2 8 $ 2.30
Place3 14 $ 3.10
Place6 1,5,8/2+,6,8/4,8,9/1,4,10/3,12,18/8,13,14 $ 190.10
Quinella 8:13 $ 20.20
Trifecta 13:8:14 $ 313.90
First4 13:8:14:5 $ 2499.00
Treble 10/12/13 $ 4048.40
Quaddie 4/10/12/13 $ 99631.80

Betting Suggestions


Multi's
Boxed Tri's and FF's
5, 6, 7, 8, 13
RETURNS - $20 STAKE
Boxed Trifecta % Bet = 33%
Boxed First Four % Bet = 16%